Health, economic and social burden of tobacco in Latin America and the expected gains of fully implementing taxes, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments control measures: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the tobacco-attributable burden on disease, medical costs, productivity losses and informal caregiving; and to estimate the health and economic gains that can be achieved if the main tobacco control measures (raising taxes on tobacco, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments) are fully implemented in eight countries that encompass 80% of the Latin American population. DESIGN: Markov probabilistic microsimulation economic model of the natural history, costs and quality of life associated with the main tobacco-related diseases. Model inputs and data on labour productivity, informal caregivers' burden and interventions' effectiveness were obtained through literature review, surveys, civil registrations, vital statistics and hospital databases. Epidemiological and economic data from January to October 2020 were used to populate the model. FINDINGS: In these eight countries, smoking is responsible each year for 351 000 deaths, 2.25 million disease events, 12.2 million healthy years of life lost, US$22.8 billion in direct medical costs, US$16.2 billion in lost productivity and US$10.8 billion in caregiver costs. These economic losses represent 1.4% of countries' aggregated gross domestic products. The full implementation and enforcement of the four strategies: taxes, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments would avert 271 000, 78 000, 71 000 and 39 000 deaths, respectively, in the next 10 years, and result in US$63.8, US$12.3, US$11.4 and US$5.7 billions in economic gains, respectively, on top of the benefits being achieved today by the current level of implementation of these measures. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking represents a substantial burden in Latin America. The full implementation of tobacco control measures could successfully avert deaths and disability, reduce healthcare spending and caregiver and productivity losses, likely resulting in large net economic benefits.

Strategies to enhance the effects of pictorial warnings for cigarettes: results from a discrete choice experiment.

AIMS: To measure the effects of changing attributes of pictorial health warning labels (HWLs) on cigarette packs in a country that has already implemented pictorial HWLs. MEASURES: For each choice set, participants were presented with two cigarette packs and asked the following three questions: (1) 'If only these two cigarette packs were available, which would you buy?'; (2) 'Each of these two packs has warnings on the front and back about the health effects of smoking. Which of these warnings best informs you about the dangers from smoking?'; and (3) 'Which warning most makes you think about quitting smoking?'. As recommended for best practices in discrete choice experiments, each of these questions was followed by an 'opt-out' question for participants to indicate whether they really believed there was a difference between the options presented (i.e. 'Would you really choose one of them?'; 'Do you really think that either of these warnings informs you about dangers from smoking?'; or 'Do you really think that either of these warnings would make you think about quitting smoking?', respectively). Each choice set could be viewed for as long as the participant wished. For each choice question (i.e. willingness to buy, informative, motivating to quit), the pack chosen was coded as 1 and the other pack as 0, with both packs being given a value of 0 if the participant 'opted out'. DESIGN: A within-subject discrete choice experiment that involved systematic manipulation of pictorial HWL size [75 versus 30% (current policy)]; inclusion of imagery on the back of the pack [versus none (current policy)]; and color formatting [black on yellow versus yellow on black (current policy)]. SETTING: Mexico, on-line panel. PARTICIPANTS: Adult smokers (n = 705). MEASUREMENTS: For each choice set, participants selected one pack as having the most informative HWL about smoking harms, the one that makes them think the most about quitting and the one they were most willing to buy. We assessed the independent and interactive effects of HWL attributes on choices. FINDINGS: Larger HWL size on the pack front (75 versus 30%) and inclusion of a pictorial image on the pack back were both independently associated with lower willingness to buy a pack [b = -0.228, standard error (SE) = 0.023 and -0.089, SE = 0.016, respectively] and greater perception of an HWL as informative (b = 0.214, SE = 0.022, and 0.191, SE = 0.017, respectively) and motivating to quit (b = 0.251, SE = 0.023 and 0.194, SE = 0.017, respectively). HWL with black text and yellow background were perceived as less informative (b = -0.037, SE = 0.016) and less motivating to quit (b = -0.032, SE = 0.015) compared with yellow text on a black background. CONCLUSIONS: Among adult Mexican smokers, pictorial health warning labels on cigarette packages that are larger or cover both sides of the pack appear more effective at lowering purchase intentions and increasing risk perceptions and motivation to quit than smaller health warning labels or health warning labels with imagery only on the pack front.

Measuring the illicit cigarette market in Mexico: a cross validation of two methodologies.

OBJECTIVE: To compare two methods to estimate the magnitude of the illicit cigarette trade in Mexico and to contrast these results with tobacco industry figures. METHODS: We used two survey methods: a smoker survey and a discarded pack survey. Data were collected in eight major cities in Mexico between November and December 2017. A total of 2396 face-to-face interviews to adult smokers were conducted and 8204 discarded packs were collected. To determine whether cigarette packs were intended for the Mexican market, we analysed pack features required by Mexican regulations and self-reported brands of the last purchase. Standard statistical tests to compare proportions were employed. Correlates of illicit cigarette use were also analysed. RESULTS: The share of cigarettes not intended for the Mexican market was 8.8% based on the analysis of discarded packs and 7.6% based on the survey of smokers, that is, the difference was small and only borderline significant overall (p=0.055). Also, both results were lower than those presented by the tobacco industry (16.6%). However, differences across methods were statistically significant for various cities. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the optimal practice for the study of illicit trade is to cross validate estimates using both the smoker survey and the littered pack survey. If resources are limited, however, our findings indicate that either method could be used because both yield similar overall results, as longs as the potential biases are considered. Also, consistent with findings from other studies, our results suggest that the tobacco industry exaggerates the scope of illicit cigarette trade.

Trends in cigarette brand preference among Mexican smokers: the rise of Pall Mall.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse trends in cigarette brand preference among Mexican smokers during the implementation period of key WHO's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control recommendations. METHODS: Data came from two nationally representative, comparable surveys, namely the Global Adult Tobacco Survey 2009 and 2015 and the National Survey on Addictions 2011 and 2016. Logistic models were used to estimate the adjusted prevalence of each brand purchased, as well as individual correlates of purchasing the single brand with a large growth over the study period. Multiple linear regressions were also employed to analyse cigarette prices across brands. RESULTS: Six brand families accounted for about 90% of the cigarette market, with Marlboro clearly dominating all brands at 54%-61%. Only the share of Pall Mall brand, however, registered a rapid increase over the period-from 1% in 2009 to 14% in 2016. Women and younger smokers (15-24 years) were more likely to prefer Pall Mall over other brands. While the typical price segmentation between international (premium) brands and national (discount) brands was observed, the price of Pall Mall is within the range of the latter. Importantly, most varieties of this brand include flavour capsule varieties (FCVs). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that the strong campaign of brand migration, the pricing strategy and the aggressive introduction of FCVs expanded Pall Mall in the Mexican cigarette market. Therefore, better control policies of cigarette contents and taxes that reduce price differentials across brands should be encouraged to promote public health.

Assessing cigarette packaging and labelling policy effects on early adolescents: results from a discrete choice experiment.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette packaging is a primary channel for tobacco advertising, particularly in countries where traditional channels are restricted. The current study evaluated the independent and interactive effects of cigarette packaging and health warning label (HWL) characteristics on perceived appeal of cigarette brands for early adolescents in Mexico. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted with early adolescents, aged 12-14 years (n=4251). The DCE involved a 3×25 design with six attributes: brand (Marlboro, Pall Mall, Camel), tobacco flavour (regular, menthol), flavour capsule (none, 1 or 2 capsules), presence of descriptive terms, branding (vs plain packaging), HWL size (30%, 75%) and HWL content (emphysema vs mouth cancer). Participants viewed eight sets of three cigarette packs and selected a pack in each set that: (1) is most/least attractive, (2) they are most/least interested in trying or (3) is most/least harmful, with a no difference option. RESULTS: Participants perceived packs as less attractive, less interesting to try and more harmful if they had plain packaging or had larger HWLs, with the effect being most pronounced when plain packaging is combined with larger HWLs. For attractiveness, plain packaging had the biggest influence on choice (43%), followed by HWL size (19%). Interest in trying was most influenced by brand name (34%), followed by plain packaging (29%). Perceived harm was most influenced by brand name (30%), followed by HWL size (29%). CONCLUSION: Increasing the size of HWLs and implementing plain packaging appear to reduce the appeal of cigarettes to early adolescents. Countries should adopt these policies to minimise the impact of tobacco marketing.

Neighbourhood deprivation and smoking and quit behaviour among smokers in Mexico: findings from the ITC Mexico Survey.

BACKGROUND: In high-income countries (HICs), higher neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation is associated with higher levels of smoking. Few studies in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) have investigated the role of the neighbourhood environment on smoking behaviour. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation is related to smoking intensity, quit attempts, quit success and smoking relapse among a cohort of smokers in Mexico from 2010 to 2012. METHODS: Data were analysed from adult smokers and recent ex-smokers who participated in waves 4-6 of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Mexico Survey. Data were linked to the Mexican government's composite index of neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation, which is based on 2010 Mexican Census data. We used generalised estimating equations to determine associations between neighbourhood deprivation and individual smoking behaviours. FINDINGS: Contrary to past findings in HICs, higher neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation was associated with lower smoking intensity. Quit attempts showed a U-shaped pattern whereby smokers living in high/very high deprivation neighbourhoods and smokers living in very low deprivation neighbourhoods were more likely to make a quit attempt than smokers living in other neighbourhoods. We did not find significant differences in neighbourhood deprivation on relapse or successful quitting, with the possible exception of people living in medium-deprivation neighbourhoods having a higher likelihood of successful quitting than people living in very low deprivation neighbourhoods (p=0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Neighbourhood socioeconomic environments in Mexico appear to operate in an opposing manner to those in HICs. Further research should investigate whether rapid implementation of strong tobacco control policies in LMICs, as occurred in Mexico during the follow-up period, avoids the concentration of tobacco-related disparities among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups.

Tax, price and cigarette brand preferences: a longitudinal study of adult smokers from the ITC Mexico Survey.

BACKGROUND: Recent tax increases in Mexico differed in structure and provided an opportunity to better understand tobacco industry pricing strategies, as well as smokers' responses to any resulting price changes. OBJECTIVES: To assess if taxes were passed onto consumers of different cigarette brands, the extent of brand switching and predictors of preference for cheaper national brands. METHODS: Using data from three waves of the Mexican administration of the International Tobacco Control Survey, we analysed self-reported brand and price paid at last cigarette purchase. Generalised estimating equations were used to determine predictors of price and preference for national brands. RESULTS: The average price of premium/international brands increased each year from 2008 to 2011; however, the price for discount/national brands increased only from 2010 to 2011. The percentage of smokers who smoked national brands remained stable between 2008 and 2010 but dropped in 2011. Factors related to smoking national brands as opposed to international brands included being male and having relatively older age, lower education, lower income and higher consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco industry pricing strategies in the wake of ad valorem taxes implemented in Mexico prior to 2011 had the impact of segmenting the market into discount national brands and premium international brands. The specific tax increase implemented in 2011 reduced the price gap between these two segments by raising the price of the national brands relative to the international brands. Evidence for trading up was found after the 2011 tax increase. These results provide further evidence for the relevance of tax policy as a tobacco control strategy; in particular, they illustrate the importance of how specific rather than ad valorem taxes can reduce the potential for downward brand switching in the face of decreasing cigarette affordability.

[Tobacco consumption, mortality and fiscal policy in Mexico]. / Consumo de tabaco, mortalidad y política fiscal en México.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze tobacco consumption in the last 12 years, its impact on chronic diseases mortality and the potential benefits of fiscal policy in Mexico. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Through the analysis of national health surveys (ENSA, ENSANUT), records of mortality and economic surveys between 2000 and 2012, smoking prevalence, chronic diseases mortality and consumption were estimated. RESULTS: In 2012, 9.2% and 19% of Mexican youths and adults were current smokers. Between 2000 and 2012, smoking prevalence did not change. However, the average consumption among adolescents and adults declined whilst the special tobacco tax has being increased. Mortality attributable to tobacco consumption for four diseases was estimated in 60 000 in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco consumption remains the leading cause of preventable death. Increasing taxes on tobacco products could deter the tobacco epidemic and consequently chronic diseases mortality in Mexico.

[Impact of harmful consumption of alcohol in accident-related mortality and chronic diseases in Mexico]. / Impacto del consumo nocivo de alcohol en accidentes y enfermedades crónicas en México.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze alcohol consumption, and its impact on road traffic-related mortality and chronic diseases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Through the analysis of national health surveys, registry of traffic collisions, mortality records and economic surveys, we estimated prevalence, mortality and consumption indicators. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2012, alcohol consumption in adolescents remained stable, with a significant increase among adults. Traffic collision rates related with alcohol were 0.36 and 0.58 among adolescents and adults, respectively; 8.4% of the population who suffered traffic injuries was under alcohol effects when the accident occurred. The trend in mortality from two alcohol-attributable diseases has been constant, with an average of 18 000 deaths per year. CONCLUSION: Alcohol abuse causes serious health damages. Tax raises to alcohol, along with other policies, could reduce harmful alcohol consumption and its associated mortality.

Consumo de tabaco, mortalidad y política fiscal en México / Tobacco consumption, mortality and fiscal policy in Mexico

Objetivo. Analizar el tabaquismo, su impacto en mortalidad por enfermedades crónicas y su política fiscal en México. Material y métodos. Se analizaron las encuestas nacionales de salud (ENSA, ENSANUT), registros de mortalidad y encuestas económicas para el periodo 2000-2012 y se estimaron prevalencia, mortalidad y consumo. Resultados. En 2012, 9.2% de los adolescentes y 19% de los adultos son fumadores activos. Entre 2000 y 2012 la prevalencia de tabaquismo permaneció estable. Sin embargo, la cantidad de cigarros promedio consumida se redujo, al tiempo que se han implementado incrementos al impuesto especial a los productos de tabaco. Las muertes atribuibles al consumo de tabaco por cuatro enfermedades se calculó en cerca de 60 000 para 2010. Conclusiones. El tabaquismo es la principal causa de muerte prevenible. El incremento sustancial de los impuestos a los productos de tabaco puede abatir la epidemia de tabaquismo y en consecuencia la mortalidad por enfermedades crónicas en México.

Objective. To analyze tobacco consumption in the last 12 years, its impact on chronic diseases mortality and the potential benefits of fiscal policy in Mexico. Materials and methods. Through the analysis of national health surveys (ENSA, ENSANUT), records of mortality and economic surveys between 2000 and 2012, smoking prevalence, chronic diseases mortality and consumption were estimated. Results. In 2012, 9.2% and 19% of Mexican youths and adults were current smokers. Between 2000 and 2012, smoking prevalence did not change. However, the average consumption among adolescents and adults declined whilst the special tobacco tax has being increased. Mortality attributable to tobacco consumption for four diseases was estimated in 60 000 in 2010. Conclusions. Tobacco consumption remains the leading cause of preventable death. Increasing taxes on tobacco products could deter the tobacco epidemic and consequently chronic diseases mortality in Mexico.

Impacto del consumo nocivo de alcohol en accidentes y enfermedades crónicas en México / Impact of harmful consumption of alcohol in accident-related mortality and chronic diseasses in Mexico

Objetivo. Analizar el consumo de alcohol, su relación con accidentes de tránsito y su impacto en enfermedades crónicas. Material y métodos. Usando encuestas nacionales de salud, registros de colisiones, lesionados y muertes, así como encuestas económicas, se estimaron indicadores de prevalencia, mortalidad y consumo. Resultados. Entre 2000 y 2012, la prevalencia de consumo de alcohol en adolescentes se mantuvo estable con un incremento importante en adultos. La tasa de colisiones de tránsito con presencia de alcohol fue de 0.36 y 0.58 en adolescentes y adultos, respectivamente. De la población con lesiones de tránsito, 8.4% estaba bajo efectos del alcohol al momento de lesionarse. La mortalidad por dos enfermedades atribuibles al alcohol se ha mantenido en alrededor de 18 000 fallecimientos anuales. Conclusiones. El abuso en el consumo alcohol implica graves daños a la salud. El incremento de impuestos al alcohol, junto con otras medidas, reduciría el consumo nocivo y la mortalidad asociada.

Objective. To analyze alcohol consumption, and its impact on road traffic-related mortality and chronic diseases. Materials and methods. Through the analysis of national health surveys, registry of traffic collisions, mortality records and economic surveys, we estimated prevalence, mortality and consumption indicators. Results. Between 2000 and 2012, alcohol consumption in adolescents remained stable, with a significant increase among adults. Traffic collision rates related with alcohol were 0.36 and 0.58 among adolescents and adults, respectively; 8.4% of the population who suffered traffic injuries was under alcohol effects when the accident occurred. The trend in mortality from two alcohol-attributable diseases has been constant, with an average of 18 000 deaths per year. Conclusion. Alcohol abuse causes serious health damages. Tax raises to alcohol, along with other policies, could reduce harmful alcohol consumption and its associated mortality.